Super Forecasting
Synopsis
The Ten Commandments of Superforecasting
- Focus your time and effort on forecasts that will prove rewarding.
- Unpack problems to expose assumptions, catch mistakes, and correct biases.
- Consider the larger category before looking at the particular case.
- Revise your beliefs often, and in small increments, to reduce the risks of both over- and under-reacting to the news.
- Find merit in opposing viewpoints
- Reject the illusion of certainty and learn to think in degrees of uncertainty.
- Avoid being either a blowhard or a waffler. Aim to be prudently decisive.
- Learn from experience, whether success or failure.
- Use precision questioning to bring out the best in others--and to let others bring out the best in you.
- Try, fail, analyze, and adjust. And try again.
- There are no universally correct commandments, including these. Question everything.